UPDATE

Dear Parents,

We have received this information from the Local Authority and are in the process of reviewing our plans to re-open the nursery. These plans will be shared with you as soon as they have been reviewed and agreed by the Governors of St Mary's College.

You may be aware that schools collectively in Blackburn with Darwen have been made a decision to reopen on the 8^th June rather than the 1^st June proposed.   Within the Government guidance, it stated ‘As a result we are asking schools, colleges and childcare providers to plan on this basis, ahead of confirmation that these tests are met’. There is some suggestion that Government will see if these tests are met in or around the 28^th May 2020 ( but this is more rumour than fact at this point in time).  

In the council Children’s Service senior managers working with the Director of Public Health has reviewed these five tests with a Blackburn with Darwen view. Their findings are below , these have formed the basis for the decision to delay schools reopening until the 8^th June.

‘Our assessment of progress towards meeting the Governments five tests:

Test 1: The NHS has the capacity to provide critical care right across the UK

We are satisfied that this test has currently been achieved both locally and nationally. 

Test 2: A sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths from coronavirus

We are satisfied that there is an overall downward trend in daily deaths from coronavirus.

Test 3: The rate of infection has decreased to manageable levels across the board

In an epidemic, one of the most important numbers is R - the reproduction number. The higher the number the faster the virus spreads through the population.  If this is below one, the number of new infections will fall over time. 

Currently, the data shows that the R value for England stands at 0.75, ranging from the lowest value in London to the highest in the North East and Yorkshire.  The R value for the North West is currently 0.73.

The R number is only one component that determines the rate of growth of the epidemic.  Other factors include the rate of new infections, the prevalence of infection across communities and the current burden faced by the healthcare system.  R should not therefore, be used as the sole indicator of the current threat. 

The most recent DfE review of the scientific advice and information states that exact rates of infectivity and transmission of children is not yet fully known, however, there is a high degree of confidence that the severity of disease and a moderate to high degree of confidence that susceptibility to the disease in younger children (up to the age of 11 to 13) is lower than in adults.  For older children, there is not enough evidence yet to determine whether susceptibility to disease is different to adults.  Further evidence about the risks to children and their carers is expected from the Governments scientific advisory group SAGE.

We are satisfied that nationally and regionally rates of infection are decreasing to manageable levels however, our decision making will be further informed by the emerging evidence and full range of factors set out in this paper.

Test 4: Operational challenges including testing and PPE are in hand, with supply able to meet future demand

Forward planning is essential and we want to ensure that our schools are able to do this effectively.  We have developed a comprehensive risk assessment tool for schools to use as part of their preparations for extended opening.  All (LA) schools have been asked complete a risk assessment for their setting.  The assessments will be reviewed and agreed by Education, Health and Safety and Public Health colleagues with further mitigation measures put in place to support safe working practices, where necessary.

Key to meeting these operational challenges is the national test and trace programme, which is still being rolled out. We are not yet satisfied that there will be comprehensive access to regular testing and tracing for children and staff, to support extended opening of schools by 1^st June.  We will continue to collaborate with the Lancashire Resilience Forum and Public Health colleagues to inform our understanding of when this will be in place.

Test 5: Confidence that any adjustments to the current measures will not risk a second peak of infections (that overwhelms the NHS)

Our precautionary stance has been further informed by other local considerations, that make us more vulnerable to a second peak, as outlined below;

Ethnicity:

Emerging evidence that is currently being reviewed by PHE shows that BAME communities are disproportionately affected by COVID-19.  The impact may also be higher among men and those in the higher age brackets.  The reasons for this are not yet fully understood, but the health inequalities present for BAME communities have long been recognised.  One hypothesis is that people from BAME communities have higher rates of underlying health conditions, such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension, and this may increase their vulnerability and risk

Approximately one third of the Boroughs population is from a BAME group, the highest proportion in Lancashire. It is therefore, critical that in Blackburn with Darwen, we are especially sensitive to the needs and worries of BAME members of staff, parents and pupils.

Deprivation:

Levels of deprivation in Blackburn with Darwen are above the national average with the Borough being within the 10% most deprived in the England.

People facing the greatest deprivation are experiencing a higher rate of exposure to COVID-19 and existing poor health puts them at risk of more sever outcomes if they contract the virus.  Measures to curb spread of the virus are leaving many of these same people exposed to greater risks to their physical and mental health from increased economic and social hardship during the lockdown. 

Schools have an important role to play in supporting the most disadvantaged children and families, which needs to be carefully balanced with the increased risk to our communities as we prepare to extend opening of schools.

We must allow sufficient time for our schools to make effective plans to support and protect the most vulnerable learners and their households.